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Discuss: Unrest in Egypt

UPDATE- On Wednesday, February 2 at 12:15 in SIE 150 we will be holding a discussion panel featuring Korbel professors who specialize on the Middle East to further discuss the political unrest in Egypt and its significance.

As unrest spreads across Egypt resulting in the deployment of Egyptian military forces to create some sort of security, President Mubarak addressed the Egyptian people hoping to cease the unrest and violence.  In his speech, President Mubarak announced his decision to sack his entire government and form a new one that will take steps towards democracy, freedom, and reducing poverty.  If anyone finds a transcript of his speech, please post it in the comments.  I am searching for one as well.

In the immediate aftermath of Mubarak’s speech, protesters continued to shout out “down with Mubarak.”  A new government with Mubarak as its leader will most likely not satisfy the unrest that has enveloped Egypt.  Many protesters have lost their lives today, and many more are wounded as fires and gunshots rage across Egypt.

What do you guys think will be the outcome?  I think Mubarak will continue to attempt to appease the protesters, however this speech may just fuel the fire of the protesters.  He will not flee from Egypt and step down until he loses the support of his military and police forces.   Mubarak may be able to wait the protesters out until their movement runs out of steam.  The ability to oust Mubarak from power will come from the committed resolve of protesters.  Leave your thoughts in the comments.

Some links:  BBC News article and  Foreign Policy article

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3 Responses

  1. A few un-arranged thoughts:

    Israel must be sooooo mad right now. Here is one of your two Peace Treaty states, now with the possibility of a new government, that is more likely to reject that old treaty rather than reject it. Meanwhile, Jordan is having its own problems. More Palestinians live there then Jordanians. If that government falls in a domino like manner, then all of those Palestinians become a huge security threat for Israel.

    There is no significant Al Qaeda presence in Egypt, thank God. But Yemen is another story. Yemen has to be the most likely domino-state. Not good to lose that security infrastructure.

    I think that we as Americans can root for the protesters so long as the Muslim Brotherhood doesn’t overtake the movement. If you can dodge the Islamist component, then why not have a more democratic, liberal Egypt?

    Muammar al Qaddafi has always talked about being a great leader without a great state while Egypt is a great state without a great leader. I can’t wait to read his comments on what is going on.

    I don’t know if Mubarak lasts until the end of the month, but I now believe that there is no possibility of him passing power down to his son once he decides that he is done.

    Hope that all made sense!

  2. I feel things will get worse before they get better. As the Economist noted in a recent editorial, the country is something of a “powder keg.” Half the population lives on less than $2 per day and multiple fault lines divide a complicated country, the Muslim Brotherhood being one of them. Given the charged atmosphere, I think it’s unlikely that whatever happens will happen peacefully. There’s bound to be some manner of ugliness that mars what’s been a carnival-like atmosphere in Liberation Square thus far. After 30 years of iron-fisted rule, I can’t seem Mubarak going quitely into the night on this one.

  3. This will follow the model. If the people really want both revolution, and freedom, then they need to keep watchful. Alexander Kerenski and the Mensevicks overthrew the czar, but the Bolshvicks won the revolution.e

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